UNDERCARD
Kevin Burns vs. TJ Grant
Kevin Burns by Unanimous DecisionDaMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia
DaMarques Johnson by Unanimous Decision
Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares
Rousimar Palhares by Unanimous Decision
Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch
Johny Hendricks by (T)KO
Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson
Matt Wiman by Unanimous Decision
Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia
Wilson Gouveia by Unanimous Decision
MAINCARD
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve
Paul Buentello by (T)KO
Two big guys with two different styles. I was leaning towards Struve to get a submission, but I don't see how he can do this unless he gets Paul on the ground. And that won't be an easy thing to do. Paul will come right at Struve and hunt him down and punches will be exchanged. This is not something that Struve handles very well. And he certainly can't take a Paul Buentello punch. Unless Struve can get the fight to the mat he's going to get hurt. I think Buentello will take this fight by TKO.
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
Kenny Florian by Submission
This is the fight I'm most uncertain about. Kenny is a master in BJJ and has some vicious elbows and ground work. Guida is about explosive as they come and it's basically impossible to finish him. Guida could work Kenny and either get a KO with his crazy fists, or take him down and ground and pound him for a TKO. Or work Kenny and control the fight the entire time and get a decision. Kenny could control Guida majority of the fight to get a decision, get a stoppage due to cut, or get a submission at any point if Guida isn't careful. This fight can easily go either way and I'm not picking sides in this because I like both fighters, but I think Guida's craziness will get the best of him and he'll walk right into a choke. I say Kenny Florian by submission.
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Jon Fitch by (T)KO
Jon Fitch is an amazing fighter with good hands and an ever growing ground game who easily finished his fights, and I see him finishing off Mike Pierce late first round or early second round. However I would love for Pierce to pull an upset. I just highly doubt that happening.
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Frank Mir by Submission
I am so hyped for this fight it's making my head spin. Again, two big guys wiht completely different styles. And the masters of each. Frank Mir without a doubt has the best wrestling/BJJ in the HW devision and Kongo has the best stand up. This fight could go any way at any time. Mir has great boxing he would not be smart to trade with Kongo. And Kongo does not want to go to the ground with Mir. Mir is still obsessed with fighting Brock Lesnar and he knows he has to beat Kongo to do so, so I think this will give him the drive to take Kongo down and submit him. But Mir put on a lot of weight and ended up wighing 265. And I'm pretty certina he had to cut to make that which makes me wonder how much he will weigh when it comes time to fight. With all of this extra weight he is carrying around will he still be able to menouvire and perform the same? I don't know. With this added weight I don't know if he could actually submit Kongo, even wiht his ground skill. This could be a boring fight. Kongo on the other hand hates Mir with passion and is going to be looking to finish this early as possible with some ground and pound. Kongo is not one to really finish fights or known for KO, so I don't see him KO-ing Mir. Kongo is going to need to finish this as quickly as he can. I'm a big fan of both guys, but my money is on Mir for this fight. Although I would really love for Kongo to prove me wrong.
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
BJ Penn by whatever he wants.
I really think people are underestimating BJ in this fight. If you want to break down fighters skills and achievements and talk about 'pound for pound', BJ is at the top of the list. (not #1 of course, but some say top 5) Diego has nothing in his bag that poses any threat to BJ in my eyes. BJ is twice the fighter that Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida are and Diego couldn't finish either one. BJ completely destroyed Joe Daddy with ease, and would do the same to Guida. Everyone is talking about BJ's cardio like it's a factor, but it's not. BJ can last 5 rounds. Diego never has. Not that he can't, but at least we know BJ can. BJ has quite possibly the best boxing in the business. And Diego wants to meet in the center of the octagon. If Diego puts his crazy face on and runs to the center to meet BJ he's going to going to get met with a fist. A few of them at that. He can try and trade with BJ but again it won't be a smart choice. So what does he do then? Take BJ down? BJ has some of the best BJJ in the business as well. Not just saying this as a fan. It's fact. BJ will easily out wrestle Diego and eventually submit him or get a TKO. Now I'm not counting Diego out at all cause that would be stupid, but he just doesn't have the skills to match BJ. If there is ever a time to root for an underdog I guess it would be now. Diego is explosive as they come and has more heart than most fighters, but it won't be enough. Even if he does last all 5 rounds I don't see him earning more points than BJ. BJ is either getting a submission in the 3rd or 4th round or a unanimous decision.
Paul Buentello by (T)KO
Two big guys with two different styles. I was leaning towards Struve to get a submission, but I don't see how he can do this unless he gets Paul on the ground. And that won't be an easy thing to do. Paul will come right at Struve and hunt him down and punches will be exchanged. This is not something that Struve handles very well. And he certainly can't take a Paul Buentello punch. Unless Struve can get the fight to the mat he's going to get hurt. I think Buentello will take this fight by TKO.
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
Kenny Florian by Submission
This is the fight I'm most uncertain about. Kenny is a master in BJJ and has some vicious elbows and ground work. Guida is about explosive as they come and it's basically impossible to finish him. Guida could work Kenny and either get a KO with his crazy fists, or take him down and ground and pound him for a TKO. Or work Kenny and control the fight the entire time and get a decision. Kenny could control Guida majority of the fight to get a decision, get a stoppage due to cut, or get a submission at any point if Guida isn't careful. This fight can easily go either way and I'm not picking sides in this because I like both fighters, but I think Guida's craziness will get the best of him and he'll walk right into a choke. I say Kenny Florian by submission.
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Jon Fitch by (T)KO
Jon Fitch is an amazing fighter with good hands and an ever growing ground game who easily finished his fights, and I see him finishing off Mike Pierce late first round or early second round. However I would love for Pierce to pull an upset. I just highly doubt that happening.
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Frank Mir by Submission
I am so hyped for this fight it's making my head spin. Again, two big guys wiht completely different styles. And the masters of each. Frank Mir without a doubt has the best wrestling/BJJ in the HW devision and Kongo has the best stand up. This fight could go any way at any time. Mir has great boxing he would not be smart to trade with Kongo. And Kongo does not want to go to the ground with Mir. Mir is still obsessed with fighting Brock Lesnar and he knows he has to beat Kongo to do so, so I think this will give him the drive to take Kongo down and submit him. But Mir put on a lot of weight and ended up wighing 265. And I'm pretty certina he had to cut to make that which makes me wonder how much he will weigh when it comes time to fight. With all of this extra weight he is carrying around will he still be able to menouvire and perform the same? I don't know. With this added weight I don't know if he could actually submit Kongo, even wiht his ground skill. This could be a boring fight. Kongo on the other hand hates Mir with passion and is going to be looking to finish this early as possible with some ground and pound. Kongo is not one to really finish fights or known for KO, so I don't see him KO-ing Mir. Kongo is going to need to finish this as quickly as he can. I'm a big fan of both guys, but my money is on Mir for this fight. Although I would really love for Kongo to prove me wrong.
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
BJ Penn by whatever he wants.
I really think people are underestimating BJ in this fight. If you want to break down fighters skills and achievements and talk about 'pound for pound', BJ is at the top of the list. (not #1 of course, but some say top 5) Diego has nothing in his bag that poses any threat to BJ in my eyes. BJ is twice the fighter that Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida are and Diego couldn't finish either one. BJ completely destroyed Joe Daddy with ease, and would do the same to Guida. Everyone is talking about BJ's cardio like it's a factor, but it's not. BJ can last 5 rounds. Diego never has. Not that he can't, but at least we know BJ can. BJ has quite possibly the best boxing in the business. And Diego wants to meet in the center of the octagon. If Diego puts his crazy face on and runs to the center to meet BJ he's going to going to get met with a fist. A few of them at that. He can try and trade with BJ but again it won't be a smart choice. So what does he do then? Take BJ down? BJ has some of the best BJJ in the business as well. Not just saying this as a fan. It's fact. BJ will easily out wrestle Diego and eventually submit him or get a TKO. Now I'm not counting Diego out at all cause that would be stupid, but he just doesn't have the skills to match BJ. If there is ever a time to root for an underdog I guess it would be now. Diego is explosive as they come and has more heart than most fighters, but it won't be enough. Even if he does last all 5 rounds I don't see him earning more points than BJ. BJ is either getting a submission in the 3rd or 4th round or a unanimous decision.
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